Monday, January 10, 2011

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Some ASX100 stocks to watch

  • Monday, January 10, 2011
  • Chris Becker
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  • I don't normally trade these, but a quick review has shown some opportunities in the ASX100:

    • Caltex (CTX) reaching a new high $15. Possible reversal on oil price. Can be volatile stock!
    • Coca Cola Amatil (CCL) strong reversal from an earnings-led correction. Possible too quick with a KC Signal indicating a probably retracement (as the first longs make a profit to the gullible second longs)
    • Cochlear (COH) small correction from recent high. Watch for close below $78 or so for full correction. Medium term support at $76 to re-enter trend
    • Computershare (CPU) flattened off after good uptrend. Sideways bullish at the moment. Watch for breakouts.
    • CSL - flattened off after stage 1 and 2 uptrends, now with possible correction? Good possibility here for a quick short.
    • CSR - very fast short term uptrend with near parabolic breakout in last 2 days. Long candles indicate lots of intra-day opportunities. One for the strong-at-heart crowd.
    • David Jones (DJS) - strong bullish daily candle breakout after retail spending results. Possible short and medium term trend could develop here, given a long correction ($5.20 to $4.30) since September. Support at $4.40
    • Harvey Norman (HVN) - has found a bottom after a disastrous anti-customer campaign. No sign of imminent upside breakout. Not the best retailer to be buying at this stage.
    • Incitec Pivot (IPL) - has recently broken out of sideways bullish move. Moving averages are stacking however, a somewhat unreliable signal that the trend may be over, as all medium term indicators suggest continued strength.
    • JB Hi-Fi (JBH) - similar single day bullish candle to DJS on news of retail spending results. Much better retailer than HVN that has suffered a 20% correction. Could be a good upside move - wait for confirmation (I might actually do this one......)
    • Leighton (LEI) - classic end of correction, new short term uptrend in place with reversal of price action. Approx. 20-30% off highs - a lot of value investors might be buying here...
    • Macarthur Coal (MCC) - I don't like trading pure commodity players, but MCC is showing signs of a strong breakout. One to watch (but better candidates to play with)
    • Mirvac Group (MGR) bullish engulfing candle on Mirvac - but only single day action. One to watch for continued signs of strength.
    • Myer (MYR) similar action to JBH and DJS. Limited upside however, not a smooth stock to trade.
    • Paladin (PDN) the uranium miner is in a bullish sideways holding pattern with a possible upside move in the coming days or next week. 
    • Primary Healthcare (PRY) in a near parabolic uptrend - not sustainable in the short term, possible entry on retracement for the hardened souls. Bad company if you ask me....
    • Qantas (QAN) yowsers! very strong single day bullish candle signals a reversal for the flying kangaroo. Need further confirmation to enter a trade. Great bull put spread opportunity!
    • Telstra (TLS) very neutral sideways pattern since early December. Low volatility means selling options or spreads is not very profitable. But it also means cheap directional plays. Not a favourite of mine, crap company and too exposed to government shenanigans. 
    • WorleyParsons (WOR) small uptrend underway, closing above local resistance at $27.50. Is WOR overbought? Still well off its 3 year highs, indeed has some upside to its 2009 high.
    There you have it - a couple of ideas and ones to watch. I use the same systems for my "Seven" to analyse the above.
    XJO (ASX200) is appearing to slow down its correction and intra-day data supports a near-close rally.

    News of the devastating floods in QLD may put a damper on the markets tomorrow, as does the current efforts in Europe, with all major indices down 1% or more at the time of writing. 

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