Followup to ASX100 watchlist

On Monday, 10th of January I posted about some ASX100 stocks that came up on my radar as possible trades.

With a full week of trading over, let's see how they went (italics is original Monday suggestion)

• Caltex (CTX) Possible reversal on oil price. down 76c or 5.1% - due to flooding impact on profit, not my analysis!
• Coca Cola Amatil (CCL) Possible too quick.... indicating a probable retracement - 4 straight days of sideways action. KC Signal** worked here...
• Cochlear (COH) Medium term support at $76 to re-enter trend  - rebounded off medium support for new short term uptrend, up 4.6%
• Computershare (CPU) Sideways bullish at the moment. Watch for breakouts - broke out of trading range for 3.7% return
• CSL - Good possibility here for a quick short - no support opportunity, but remains Sideways Bearish, but support at $36
• CSR - Long candles indicate lots of intra-day opportunities -closed at same level as Monday, with many intra-day trades in between. Sideways Bullish continues.
• David Jones (DJS) Possible short and medium term trend could develop here. Support at $4.40.  Up 2.6% on new uptrend, although resistance met (long shadows on recent daily candles) at $4.75-$4.78.
• Harvey Norman (HVN) No sign of imminent upside breakout. Well I got that wrong - 4.8% uptrend, probably due to new upcoming sales of white goods for flood replacements.
• Incitec Pivot (IPL) all medium term indicators suggest continued strength. A small retracement on Tuesday, but ended up for the week. Still good trend.
• JB Hi-Fi (JBH) Could be a good upside move - wait for confirmation - confirmation on Tuesday, great new move 5.1% for the week and probably rising.
• Leighton (LEI) new short term uptrend in place with reversal of price action - correct, but somewhat weak with not very impressive volume force
• Macarthur Coal (MCC) showing signs of a strong breakout - trend continued, but still barely closed above Monday close - as I said, better opportunities were available.
• Mirvac Group (MGR) One to watch for continued signs of strength - new short term uptrend, 3.1% return. Likely to continue, but sideways for awhile.
• Myer (MYR) similar action to JBH and DJS. Limited upside - only closed 4c (or 1.5%) up on Monday. Weak trend at the moment. 
• Paladin (PDN) possible upside move in the coming days or next week - breakout on the Wednesday, closed 7.5% up for the week.
• Primary Healthcare (PRY) not sustainable in the short term, possible entry on retracement for the hardened souls - correct, price went nowhere all week.
• Qantas (QAN) signals a reversal for the flying kangaroo. Need further confirmation to enter a trade - no further confirmation - long shadows indicate confused market.
• Telstra (TLS) Low volatility means selling options or spreads is not very profitable. But it also means cheap directional plays - small uptrend from a breakout. The Jan 2.70 in-the-money (ITM) Call Option (TLSD68) could have been bought for 9.5c on Monday, and traded at 17c today. Classic ABC Trade**. 
• WorleyParsons (WOR) small uptrend underway, closing above local resistance at $27.50 - correct: 2.4% small uptrend for the week.

Results
Out of 19 forecasts, I'll ignore CTX as being "correct" (I thought on oil price - which went up, not the flood damage to refineries), I'll separate the results as such:

• Correct call - 8 (CPU, CSR, DJS, IPL, LEI, MYR, PRY, WOR)
• Wrong call - 1 (HVN)
• Possible call, confirmed - 7 (CCL, COH, JBH, MCC, MGR, PDN, TLS)
• Possible call, not confirmed - 2 (CSL, QAN)

Not bad for an afternoon's analysis. 


Remember, its not the win/loss ratio (i.e how many you get right or wrong), but the profit/loss ratio. You can have 9 losers and 1 winner and come out by a mile, with proper capital and risk management.


Sidenote 1- a KC Signal is something I've discovered that measures a "too-fast" daily price move. Analysis of daily candlesticks thereafter will confirm or ignore the signal's intent.


Sidenote 2 - an ABC Trade stands for "Asymmetric, Black Swan, Contrarian". Effectively, going against the grain - or the unexpected - for an excellent payoff (e.g 200%) but probably very low or zero chance of success.

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Some ASX100 stocks to watch

I don't normally trade these, but a quick review has shown some opportunities in the ASX100:

• Caltex (CTX) reaching a new high $15. Possible reversal on oil price. Can be volatile stock!
• Coca Cola Amatil (CCL) strong reversal from an earnings-led correction. Possible too quick with a KC Signal indicating a probably retracement (as the first longs make a profit to the gullible second longs)
• Cochlear (COH) small correction from recent high. Watch for close below $78 or so for full correction. Medium term support at $76 to re-enter trend
• Computershare (CPU) flattened off after good uptrend. Sideways bullish at the moment. Watch for breakouts.
• CSL - flattened off after stage 1 and 2 uptrends, now with possible correction? Good possibility here for a quick short.
• CSR - very fast short term uptrend with near parabolic breakout in last 2 days. Long candles indicate lots of intra-day opportunities. One for the strong-at-heart crowd.
• David Jones (DJS) - strong bullish daily candle breakout after retail spending results. Possible short and medium term trend could develop here, given a long correction ($5.20 to $4.30) since September. Support at $4.40
• Harvey Norman (HVN) - has found a bottom after a disastrous anti-customer campaign. No sign of imminent upside breakout. Not the best retailer to be buying at this stage.
• Incitec Pivot (IPL) - has recently broken out of sideways bullish move. Moving averages are stacking however, a somewhat unreliable signal that the trend may be over, as all medium term indicators suggest continued strength.
• JB Hi-Fi (JBH) - similar single day bullish candle to DJS on news of retail spending results. Much better retailer than HVN that has suffered a 20% correction. Could be a good upside move - wait for confirmation (I might actually do this one......)
• Leighton (LEI) - classic end of correction, new short term uptrend in place with reversal of price action. Approx. 20-30% off highs - a lot of value investors might be buying here...
• Macarthur Coal (MCC) - I don't like trading pure commodity players, but MCC is showing signs of a strong breakout. One to watch (but better candidates to play with)
• Mirvac Group (MGR) bullish engulfing candle on Mirvac - but only single day action. One to watch for continued signs of strength.
• Myer (MYR) similar action to JBH and DJS. Limited upside however, not a smooth stock to trade.
• Paladin (PDN) the uranium miner is in a bullish sideways holding pattern with a possible upside move in the coming days or next week. 
• Primary Healthcare (PRY) in a near parabolic uptrend - not sustainable in the short term, possible entry on retracement for the hardened souls. Bad company if you ask me....
• Qantas (QAN) yowsers! very strong single day bullish candle signals a reversal for the flying kangaroo. Need further confirmation to enter a trade. Great bull put spread opportunity!
• Telstra (TLS) very neutral sideways pattern since early December. Low volatility means selling options or spreads is not very profitable. But it also means cheap directional plays. Not a favourite of mine, crap company and too exposed to government shenanigans. 
• WorleyParsons (WOR) small uptrend underway, closing above local resistance at $27.50. Is WOR overbought? Still well off its 3 year highs, indeed has some upside to its 2009 high.

There you have it - a couple of ideas and ones to watch. I use the same systems for my "Seven" to analyse the above.
XJO (ASX200) is appearing to slow down its correction and intra-day data supports a near-close rally.

News of the devastating floods in QLD may put a damper on the markets tomorrow, as does the current efforts in Europe, with all major indices down 1% or more at the time of writing. 

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